Jan 9, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 9 17:34:45 UTC 2014 (20140109 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140109 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140109 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140109 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 091731

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 AM CST THU JAN 09 2014

   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY
   ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE START OF DAY 2...AS A LEAD  SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   TRACKS NEWD FROM THE BASE OF A ROCKIES/PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH.  THIS
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL CONCURRENTLY
   TRACK NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MO VALLEY...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY.  MEANWHILE...FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE
   ROCKIES/PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 2 WITH AN EWD
   SHIFT.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS A PORTION OF A MIDLEVEL WAVE...NOW OVER
   THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL JETS
   DIG SEWD REACHING PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO ARKLATEX/OZARKS
   REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  MEANWHILE...AMPLIFICATION OF THE
   MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WINDS
   FROM OK/TX THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. A COLD
   FRONT TRAILING FROM THE NEWD MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL ACCELERATE
   E-SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
   WHILE THE NRN EXTENT REACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY 12Z
   SATURDAY.

   ...NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST TX FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
   AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
   FRONT...AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO 
   SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUING FROM LATE DAY 1 ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS AND SPREADING INTO THE OZARKS FRIDAY MORNING. ON THE SRN
   FRINGE OF THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY...THE AIR MASS WILL UNDERGO
   FURTHER GRADUAL MOISTENING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF
   EAST TX.

   ALTHOUGH THE EXACT EXTENSIVENESS/IMPACTS OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION/
   CLOUDINESS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...INDICATIONS PERSIST THAT THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER COULD MODESTLY DESTABILIZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
   AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH MLCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG
   POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO EAST TX.  THIS COULD PROVE
   FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF NEAR-SURFACE BASED TSTMS.  DESPITE
   UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION...MORE THAN
   SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LEAD
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR COULD CONTRIBUTE
   TO AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS. THIS RISK
   COULD INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS...A BRIEF TORNADO...AND SEVERE HAIL
   PENDING A SUFFICIENTLY FAVORABLE /NON-LINEAR/ CONVECTIVE MODE.  THE
   OVERALL SEVERE RISK REMAINS MARGINAL/ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS
   NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EAST TX....THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
   THE SEVERE RISK COULD REACH FARTHER E TOWARD THE NWRN LA
   BORDER...THUS THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE
   E.

   ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES FRI NIGHT...
   INLAND CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ABATE
   THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM SECTOR DEVELOPING INLAND. HOWEVER...NWD/
   INLAND PENETRATION OF WARM SECTOR SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED
   CONVECTION/TSTMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THIS FACTOR IS CLOSELY TIED TO
   THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/CLOUDINESS OVER INLAND AREAS AS
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS NWD ATOP A COOLER MORE STABLE AIR MASS
   INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE
   RELEGATED TO NEAR-COASTAL AREAS /WITHIN 75-100 MILES OF THE GULF OF
   MEXICO/...WITH MUCAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG POSSIBLE.  THE UNCERTAINTY
   IN THE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION AND WITH STRONGER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT REMAINING NORTH OF THIS REGION...THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER
   COVERAGE AND ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN LOW.  DESPITE
   THIS LOW POTENTIAL FOR COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...A
   CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED THREAT PERSISTS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A
   TORNADO RISK FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS EXPECTED
   STRENGTHENING AND MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL SRH WOULD
   SUPPORT THESE THREATS.

   ..PETERS.. 01/09/2014

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