Jan 10, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 10 06:34:47 UTC 2014 (20140110 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140110 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140110 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140110 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 135,066 16,920,576 Jacksonville, FL...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Durham, NC...
   SPC AC 100632

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2014

   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...A GENERALLY ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW
   REGIME IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...WITH A COUPLE OF
   EMBEDDED PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGHS.  ONE NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE
   PROCESS OF DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   ROCKIES...WHERE A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS TURNING EASTWARD
   INTO THE PLAINS.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL GRADUALLY
   PIVOT EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
   12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING INTO QUEBEC BY LATE SATURDAY
   NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE.  

   AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO DIG UPSTREAM OF
   THE INITIAL IMPULSE...THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDDAY
   SATURDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH
   AMPLIFICATION...BEFORE TURNING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY EVENING.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND
   FIELDS APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN A MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF A COLD
   FRONT /TRAILING FROM THE QUEBEC LOW/ ADVANCING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
   COAST.  WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG
   A REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH
   NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

   MEANWHILE...ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
   ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST DURING THE DAY
   SATURDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY POOL OF RATHER COLD MID-LEVEL AIR...WITH 500 MB
   TEMPERATURES OF -26 TO -30C...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
   MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

   THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER...IS
   EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN INTO MIDDLE
   ATLANTIC COAST...AND PROBABLY WILL INCLUDE A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

   ...SOUTHERN INTO MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...
   ALTHOUGH THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY
   TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION...APPRECIABLE STEEPENING OF
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY BEFORE LOW-LEVEL COLD
   ADVECTION DIMINISHES CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT. 
   HOWEVER...AN INFLUX OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
   /PRECIPITABLE WATER AOA 1.5 INCHES/ PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT
   LEAST WEAK CAPE EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  THIS IS
   EXPECTED TO BE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
   SOUTHERN GEORGIA...INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND MID
   ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE A RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE SURFACE BASED
   LAYER LINGERS CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA.

   GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...FORCING NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE...AND
   AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM IMPULSE...IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
   INTO SATURDAY EVENING...WITH ONE OR MORE EVOLVING LINES OF
   THUNDERSTORMS.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DEEP
   LAYER MEAN FLOW...INCLUDING A RATHER STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET
   WHICH MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST MAY BE ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 70
   KTS...STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE A RISK FOR DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS.  THE ENVIRONMENT MAY EVEN BECOME CONDUCIVE TO
   SUPERCELLS...AT LEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINES...IF NOT
   DISCRETE...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES.

   ..KERR.. 01/10/2014

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