Jan 10, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 10 17:32:47 UTC 2014 (20140110 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140110 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140110 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140110 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 135,066 16,920,576 Jacksonville, FL...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Durham, NC...
   SPC AC 101729

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2014

   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
   FROM PART OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL TO THE SRN AND MID ATLANTIC
   STATES...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED...PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.  THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTM
   COVERAGE AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ATTENDANT TO THE EWD
   MOVEMENT OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH.  THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
   THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS ON SATURDAY...AND BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED
   SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS IT REACHES THE ERN SEABOARD. 
   THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS
   FROM THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST REGION NWD ACROSS THE ERN STATES. 
   A SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS
   IT TRACKS NEWD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC...WHILE A
   TRAILING COLD FRONT STEADILY ADVANCES EWD REACHING ERN NY TO THE
   DELMARVA THROUGH ERN NC TO NRN FL BY 12/00Z.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
   MOVE OFFSHORE MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT.

   ...SRN-MID ATLANTIC STATES SWD TO NRN FL AND FL PANHANDLE...
   ELY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES OVER THE ERN GULF TO OFF THE SRN-MID
   ATLANTIC STATES WILL VEER TO SLY DURING DAY 1 ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE
   RETURN/MOISTENING.  THIS PROCESS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
   FIRST HALF OF DAY 2...AS SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE
   DEEPENING FULL LATITUDE TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+
   INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PRE-COLD FRONT WARM SECTOR INTO
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  DESPITE THIS MOISTENING...MODEST LAPSE RATES
   /700-500 MB RATES AROUND 6.5 C PER KM/ AND LIMITED SURFACE HEATING
   DUE TO CLOUDINESS WILL HAMPER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
   INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE...AT
   BEST...FROM 500-800 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.

   THE STRONG DYNAMICS ATTENDANT TO THE DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
   /500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-120 METERS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
   INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/ WILL TEND TO FAVOR LINEAR FORCING...WITH
   CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS /4 KM NSSL AND NMM/ SUGGESTING A BROKEN
   LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...THESE MODELS ALSO
   SHOW THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE
   OF THE SRN-MID ATLANTIC WHERE WATERS ARE WARMER...THOUGH AT LEAST
   ONE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND COULD SUPPORT SEMI-DISCRETE TO
   DISCRETE STORMS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING.

   THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR
   COMBINED WITH FAST STORM MOVEMENTS WILL FAVOR THE THREAT FOR SOME
   DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO
   RISK...MAINLY WITH THE DISCRETE AND/OR SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS.

   ..PETERS.. 01/10/2014

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