Jan 11, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 11 06:01:44 UTC 2014 (20140111 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140111 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140111 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140111 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 110600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2014

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
   PROGRESSES INLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
   UPSTREAM RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. 
   FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST THROUGH THIS
   FORECAST PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN EASTWARD EXPANSION ACROSS THE
   PACIFIC COAST.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE SPLITTING REMNANTS OF THE
   INLAND ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE EAST
   OF THE ROCKIES...THROUGH THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY INTO
   SUNDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD PERSISTS AMONG THE
   MODELS CONCERNING THESE DEVELOPMENTS...INCLUDING THE MOVEMENT OF THE
   SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLIT EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   ROCKIES...AND ITS POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON ANOTHER IMPULSE WITHIN A
   LINGERING WEAK BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
   PLATEAU INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/GULF COAST REGION.  THIS
   CONTRIBUTES TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
   PERIOD.  IN GENERAL THOUGH...AT LEAST SOME BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY
   DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODEST MOISTENING WITHIN A SOUTHERLY RETURN
   FLOW TOWARD THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST.  WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF
   A BAND OR BANDS OF STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
   ADVECTION...THIS SEEMS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MINIMUM THRESHOLD
   PROBABILITIES FOR A CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM INLAND OF COASTAL
   AREAS.

   ..KERR.. 01/11/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z