Jan 11, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 11 17:32:46 UTC 2014 (20140111 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140111 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140111 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140111 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 111730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2014

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A BROAD TROUGH EVOLVING
   EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING DAY 2...AS SPLITTING REMNANTS OF THE
   STRONG STORM SYSTEM/TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
   PROGRESS E/SEWD INTO THE PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z NAM
   ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS/UKMET
   INDICATING LESS AMPLIFICATION AND SLOWER ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THE SRN
   SPLIT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SRN SPLIT SYSTEM WILL AID IN THE EWD MOVEMENT
   OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SHOWN AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SRN
   TIP OF BAJA PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...ACROSS MEXICO TO THE TX GULF
   COAST. 

   ...PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TO E TX AND FAR WRN LA...
   A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
   GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION SPREADS E/SEWD INTO THE MID
   MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR TSTMS TO
   DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TO E TX/FAR WRN
   LA...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...GIVEN SOME RETURN FLOW/MOISTENING...
   LOW LEVEL WAA...AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE BAJA TROUGH. 
   A SLOWER EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH SUGGESTS THE TSTM POTENTIAL
   SHOULD NOT REACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

   ..PETERS.. 01/11/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z