Jan 12, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 12 06:02:47 UTC 2014 (20140112 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140112 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140112 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140112 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 120600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2014

   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS/SOUTHEAST...
   CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN STILL APPEARS
   LIKELY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGE
   BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
   AMERICA...WHILE LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING EVOLVES DOWNSTREAM...EAST OF
   THE ROCKIES INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE SPREAD AMONG THE NCEP
   SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAINS SIZABLE CONCERNING THE AMPLITUDE OF
   THIS LATTER FEATURE...AND THE 12/00Z OPERATIONAL NAM NOW APPEARS
   CONSIDERABLY WEAKER /COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND GFS--AND PROBABLY TOO
   WEAK/ CONCERNING THE DIGGING SOUTHERN MEMBER OF AN EMBEDDED SPLIT
   PAIR OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
   WAVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE GULF INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTS.  

   BASED ON THE ECMWF AND GFS...IT STILL SEEMS PROBABLE THAT LOW-LEVEL
   AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY BY
   MID DAY MONDAY TO ENHANCE CONVECTION...PERHAPS SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS
   AND/OR AN ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTER NEAR CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COASTAL
   AREAS.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
   MEXICAN PLATEAU...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH...COULD SUPPORT INITIATION OF STORMS BASED IN A DESTABILIZING
   BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
   MEXICO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY THEN
   CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
   DAY MONDAY...PERHAPS IMPACTING IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND PROVIDING
   AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  DUE TO THE WEAK TO
   MODEST NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
   IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING FRONTAL PASSAGE...SEVERE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL INLAND OF IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS STILL SEEMS NEGLIGIBLE
   ...AND ANY CONVECTION PROGRESSING INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
   FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT DOES.

   ..KERR.. 01/12/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z