Jan 12, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 12 17:30:48 UTC 2014 (20140112 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140112 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140112 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140112 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 121728

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2014

   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ON
   MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS WRN NORTH AMERICA
   AND A PACIFIC TROUGH...NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
   REGION EVOLVES INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL
   AND ERN STATES.  DESPITE GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE SCALE...
   THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF A SRN SPLIT
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS ESE TOWARD THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY AND NRN GULF COAST REGION DURING DAY 2.  MEANWHILE...A SRN
   STREAM NRN MEXICO DAY 1 SYSTEM WILL REMAIN AN OPEN WAVE DURING DAY
   2...WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
   MONDAY AFTERNOON.  

   ...NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
   ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTIES EXIST WITH THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   INTO THE GULF COAST REGION ON MONDAY...AN ADDITIONAL LIMITING FACTOR
   FOR AN INLAND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS WITH A LACK IN SUFFICIENT
   TIME FOR BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE
   OF SATURDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE.  MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOWER 60S COULD REACH COASTAL AREAS FROM LA TO THE FL PANHANDLE.

   THE SRN EXTENT OF A COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
   DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE GULF
   COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES THIS PERIOD.  A FRONTAL WAVE...ATTENDANT TO
   THE WEAKENING SRN STREAM SYSTEM...SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
   NWRN GULF EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND REACH SERN LA TO SWRN AL MONDAY
   AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH DESTABILIZATION TOWARD THE GULF COAST SHOULD BE
   RELATIVELY WEAK...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR
   COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...EITHER WITH NEW
   DEVELOPMENT...AND/OR AN ONGOING AREA OF STORMS OVER THE NWRN GULF
   TRACKING NEWD DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THUS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL
   MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES INVOF OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
   COAST.

   ..PETERS.. 01/12/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z