Jan 13, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 13 06:02:47 UTC 2014 (20140113 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140113 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140113 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140113 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 130600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 AM CST MON JAN 13 2014

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE TO MODEL FORECASTS FOR
   THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  AMPLIFIED EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH
   AMERICAN UPPER RIDGING AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
   TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TUESDAY.  IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY
   THAT THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH...BETWEEN THE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS...IN RESPONSE TO THE
   CONTINUED DIGGING OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH A
   REINFORCING COLD INTRUSION IN LOWER LEVELS.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS
   FEATURE...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL PROBABLY ACCELERATE
   OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING...NEAR THE
   CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST...THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. 
   ASSOCIATED MODEST SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
   MIGRATE OFF SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY MID DAY
   TUESDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING RAPIDLY NORTH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC
   SEABOARD.  WHILE THERE MAY BE LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR
   THE FRONTAL WAVE AND FRONT ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND
   PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE
   DAY...MINIMAL BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CAPE AND WEAK LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES SEEM LIKELY TO PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  ELSEWHERE...DRY OR OTHERWISE STABLE
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION.

   ..KERR.. 01/13/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z