Jan 13, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 13 16:29:45 UTC 2014 (20140113 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140113 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140113 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140113 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 131628

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1028 AM CST MON JAN 13 2014

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...FL PENINSULA...

   LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
   ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGHING
   ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE ERN CONUS.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL FORCE
   PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO VEER ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND
   LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN WEAK/MARGINAL.  EVEN SO...LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST
   ACROSS SRN FL WHERE SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD HOLD IN THE UPPER
   60S/LOWER 70S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
   THE PENINSULA DO NOT FAVOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS AS LAPSE RATES SHOULD
   PROVE MARGINAL.  HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL EXIST FOR WEAK
   CONVECTION INDUCED BY FRONTAL UPLIFT ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE
   PW VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 1.5 INCHES.  IN ALL LIKELIHOOD MUCH OF THE
   FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. 
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS SHOULD
   ATTAIN CLOUD HEIGHTS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE.

   ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...

   MODIFIED WARM SECTOR WILL BE FORCED OFF ALL BUT THE OUTER BANKS
   REGION OF NC BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS NARROW CORRIDOR OF
   HIGHER MOISTURE/WEAKLY BUOYANT AIR SHOULD QUICKLY BE DISPLACED
   OFFSHORE AND THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   BELOW 10 PERCENT THIS PERIOD.

   ..DARROW.. 01/13/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z