Jan 14, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 14 06:08:46 UTC 2014 (20140114 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140114 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140114 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140114 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 140605

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1205 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS/SOUTHEAST...
   MODELS INDICATE THAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING...NOW BUILDING ACROSS
   THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...WILL PERSIST INTO
   AND THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  A SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT
   WAVE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE CREST OF THIS FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE DIGGING INTO LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING NOW FORMING EAST
   OF THE ROCKIES...CONTRIBUTING TO ITS MAINTENANCE...AND SUPPORTING
   SUCCESSIVELY COLDER REINFORCING INTRUSIONS OF DRY/STABLE LOW-LEVEL
   AIR INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.  ONE COLD FRONT IS
   STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY 12Z
   WEDNESDAY...WITH DRYING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
   ITS WAKE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST REGION. 
   WHILE IT DOES NOW APPEAR THAT THE RISK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY COULD LINGER NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE DAY
   WEDNESDAY...THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WELL EAST OF COASTAL AREAS.

   CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND THE MODEL
   ENSEMBLE DATA CONCERNING A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH /AND
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS/...WHICH MAY TURN EASTWARD AND TAKE
   ON AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EASTERN GULF STATES INTO MID AND
   SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY NOT BE
   COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION AS STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING 
   CONTRIBUTES TO STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE LEE
   OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT.  IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CHARGE SEPARATION...AND
   LIGHTNING...BUT THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL SEEMS TOO LOW FOR A
   CATEGORICAL THUNDER OUTLOOK AT THE PRESENT TIME.

   OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
   PREVAIL ACROSS THE U.S...WITH NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

   ..KERR.. 01/14/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z