Jan 14, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 14 17:17:45 UTC 2014 (20140114 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140114 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140114 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140114 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 141715

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1115 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014

   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SOUTH FL...

   SFC COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO EXTREME SOUTH FL BY 15/12Z AS PRIMARY
   CYCLOGENESIS SHIFTS WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK ALONG THE BOUNDARY DUE
   TO VEERED SFC FLOW...AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS
   THE KEYS/MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DEEP
   CONVECTION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PW VALUES AOA 1.5 INCHES AND
   POOR LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS VERY EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD...HOWEVER MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP/RESIDE OFFSHORE AND
   POSE LITTLE THREAT TO INLAND AREAS.

   ..DARROW.. 01/14/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z