Jan 16, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 16 06:02:44 UTC 2014 (20140116 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140116 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140116 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140116 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 160600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
   INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVAILING LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW
   PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  ANOTHER IN A
   SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS...DIGGING INTO
   AMPLIFIED LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...APPEARS
   LIKELY TO REACH THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BEFORE
   TURNING EASTWARD...THEN EAST NORTHEASTWARD...TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
   SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...A
   REINFORCING INTRUSION OF COLD/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO
   OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE EAST.

   COINCIDING WITH DAYTIME INSOLATION NEAR THE APPALACHIANS...IT DOES
   APPEAR THAT STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
   SUFFICIENT STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO AND KENTUCKY
   INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.  WHILE FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CHARGE SEPARATION AND BRIEF/ISOLATED
   LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
   SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR
   BELOW THE MINIMUM THRESHOLD FOR A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AT THE PRESENT
   TIME.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION OFF THE
   SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

   ..KERR.. 01/16/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z