SPC AC 151729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LOW-AMPLITUDE...WLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAY 2. WHILE A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
NEWD AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS LOCATED IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES. A PACIFIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
FARTHER INLAND MOVING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...REACHING THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN A NO TSTM FORECAST /LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
PROBABILITY/ FOR THE CONUS. HOWEVER...A COUPLE AREAS OF THE U.S.
COULD HAVE A FEW STRIKES...BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN A GENERAL TSTM AREA.
...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO CENTRAL ROCKIES...
LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN ROCKIES SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN WLY FLOW
ALOFT...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH
CROSSING THIS REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
...NWRN AR TO MO...
A SLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO MO
SUNDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE
APPROACHING INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTO THIS REGION BENEATH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A SOMEWHAT SUBSTANTIAL WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 650-850 MB THAT SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED UPDRAFTS TO REACH EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR
CHARGE SEPARATION.
..PETERS.. 02/15/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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