SPC AC 020626

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
   A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NRN NC COAST TO THE CNTRL
   GULF COAST MON MORNING WILL ADVANCE SEWD BEFORE STALLING OVER THE
   NRN FL PENINSULA. MARGINAL PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST
   TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID DAY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE
   GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SERN MS AND SRN AL WHILE DEEP SHEAR IS ENHANCED
   BY A DEPARTING MID-LEVEL JET MAX. HOWEVER...POOR TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
   RATES AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MITIGATE THE SVR
   POTENTIAL. STORM CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE AS A
   PRE-FRONTAL LLJ WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

   ADDITIONALLY...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SRN-STREAM
   IMPULSE COULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR MON NIGHT OVER
   CNTRL/SRN TX...WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. THIS
   ACTIVITY WOULD BE ROOTED ATOP A SFC-BASED COLD DOME AND SHOULD
   REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. ONLY MODEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
   CONTENT AMIDST LIMITED DEEP ASCENT PRECLUDES SVR PROBABILITIES.

   A FEW SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH MOIST WLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN CA TO THE NRN
   GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN OVERALL
   DEARTH OF BUOYANCY THAT WILL BE DISTRIBUTED THROUGH NARROW CAPE
   PROFILES...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT...THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR GENERAL THUNDER
   DESIGNATION.

   ..COHEN.. 03/02/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z