Mar 26, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 26 17:30:50 UTC 2014 (20140326 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140326 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140326 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140326 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 152,638 12,175,555 Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...Little Rock, AR...Overland Park, KS...
   SPC AC 261729

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2014

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO TO THE ARKLATEX...

   ...MO TO ARKLATEX...

   SRN CA MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN
   ROCKIES THEN EJECT NEWD INTO SWRN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
   WHERE 500MB FLOW SHOULD EXCEED 70KT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
   WARM SECTOR NORTH OF I-40 AT PEAK HEATING.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS
   FEATURE...LEE CYCLONE WILL TRANSLATE ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER TO A
   POSITION OVER FAR NW MO AT 18Z.  A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INTENSE
   HEATING...ROUGHLY 100 MI WIDE...SHOULD AID DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
   TRAILING COLD FRONT/DRY LINE EXTENDING ACROSS SERN KS INTO WRN MO BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON.  INTENSE HEATING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD FORCE
   A WELL DEFINED DRY LINE EAST OF I-35 PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   ACROSS OK.

   LATEST THINKING IS MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE NWD ATOP
   MODIFYING CONTINENTAL AIR MASS THAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETREAT
   ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.  26/12Z GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS A NARROW AXIS OF LOWER 50S SFC DEW POINTS COULD EXTEND
   AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITHIN AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR OF INTENSE
   HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER ERN KS/WRN MO.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED PARCELS WILL BECOME FREELY BUOYANT AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S...LIKELY BY 20Z TIME FRAME. 
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN FAVORABLE ZONE OF LOW
   LEVEL CONVERGENCE/HEATING...INITIALLY ALONG COLD FRONT THEN SWD
   ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO ERN OK.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORS
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

   SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP SWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX WILL FORM WITHIN A
   MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHERE SFC DEW POINTS MAY RISE INTO THE LOWER
   60S.  WHILE MUCAPE MAY NOT EXCEED 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE
   ACTIVITY FROM SWRN MO SWD TO THE RED RIVER.  HAVE INCREASED THE
   PROBABILITY OF SIG SEVERE ALONG THE DRY LINE TO INCLUDE THIS
   ENHANCED RISK.  SEVERE THREAT WILL LESSEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
   AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE MS
   RIVER.

   ..DARROW.. 03/26/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z