Apr 16, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Wed Apr 16 17:26:48 UTC 2014 ( | ) | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 161724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. ...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... RICH DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD WHILE MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS WELL IN ADVANCE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING THAT WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE GULF. MINOR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...LIKELY SIGNALING WARMER CONDITIONS ON D2/THU THAN D1/WED...AND SFC TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY REACH THE LOWER-MIDDLE 80S. THIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY MARITIME-INFLUENCED SFC TRAJECTORIES WITH ELYS SUPPORTING MIDDLE/UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG PROVIDED PARTIAL OR COMPLETE INSOLATION. DESPITE MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUCH BUOYANCY WILL BE AIDED BY THE PERSISTENCE OF COOL H5 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -12C AND -10C SURMOUNTING HIGH THETA-E WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OF NOTE...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE LIKELY EXHIBITING A COOL BIAS BASED ON SIMULATED SUPPRESSED PBL MIXING...AS AFFIRMED BY COMPARISONS TO CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS. GIVEN THE ELY FLOW IMPINGING ON DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...THE W-COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE FAVORED FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. PW VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR SCATTERED-NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WHILE 45-60 KT OF HIGH LEVEL FLOW PROMOTE EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE VENTILATION AND MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER. AS SUCH...MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH DMGG WINDS AND SVR HAIL POSSIBLE. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE INTERIOR WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO SUPPORT INLAND PROPAGATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE WEST-COAST METRO AREAS. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM TAMPA BAY AREA TO LAKELAND FL...SOMEWHAT LOWER BOUNDARY-LAYER THETA-E WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LESS BUOYANCY AND A LOWER RISK FOR SVR STORMS. ...ELSEWHERE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST... INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO YIELD AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THU NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. ...SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND THE GREAT BASIN... MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT PRECEDING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NWRN UNITED STATES WILL OVERLIE DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS AMIDST MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... A NE/SW-ORIENTED SFC COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL WEAKEN WHILE ACCOMPANYING WEAKENING CONVERGENCE INTERCEPTS ONLY PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE. THE TRACK OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE FORECAST TO CROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF ANY OF THE RETURNING MOISTURE SUPPORTING APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY. ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING. ..COHEN.. 04/16/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |