SPC AC 260554

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER AR...FAR NRN LA/NERN TX/ERN
   OK/SWRN MO...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
   CONUS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL STATES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.
   THE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES APPEARS CENTERED FROM THE
   ARK-LA-TEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES
   AT 12Z/SUN WILL SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS NEB. AN
   ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET /AOA 50 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL
   PERSIST FROM THE DESERT SW...CURLING NWD FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE
   MO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT EWD OVER THE
   CNTRL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING EWD ACROSS THE CORN BELT TO
   THE LOWER OH VALLEY. A DRYLINE/WEAKENING PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
   REACH ERN KS/OK INTO DEEP S TX IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

   ...MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GULF COAST...
   OVERALL SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WITH
   GRADUALLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A POSSIBLE OUTBREAK AMIDST
   CONTINUED LIMITING FACTORS. 

   THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE INCREASINGLY BROAD/MOIST BENEATH AN EML WITH
   LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S INTO THE LOWER/MID-MS VALLEYS AND
   ARKLATEX BY EARLY EVENING SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH INITIALLY STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
   SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. 

   AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SUN FROM PARTS OF IA TO
   OK. ALTHOUGH THE BULK THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED...IT SHOULD
   TRANSITION TO BECOMING SURFACE-BASED AS DOWNSTREAM DIURNAL HEATING
   ENSUES. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE AS THIS LEAD CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPS EWD.

   THE MOST INTENSE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
   REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION...THERE REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL
   UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION /ESPECIALLY WITH NRN
   EXTENT/. NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AT LEAST
   MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG INTO NERN KS AS
   INSOLATION OCCURS ALONG THE DRYLINE AMIDST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...ROBUST MID-LEVEL DCVA WOULD FOSTER
   SCATTERED STORMS FORMING BY MID-AFTERNOON INVOF KS/MO BORDER.
   ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE LARGELY MERIDIONAL
   HERE...BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WOULD AID IN SUFFICIENT CURVATURE TO
   THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL /SOME
   SIGNIFICANT/ AND AT LEAST A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE. PARTS OF
   THIS REGION MAY BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT
   APPEARS STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION WILL NOT BE TOO
   DETRIMENTAL TO THE AFTERNOON THREAT. 

   FARTHER S...A MORE VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EXIST S
   OF ANY EARLY DAY CONVECTION /INVOF THE ARKLATEX/. WITH SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO THE 80S/90S ALONG/W OF THE DRYLINE IN
   TX...MLCAPE SHOULD REACH 2500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF IT. HODOGRAPHS
   APPEAR QUITE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN THE
   MOST ROBUST WITH THE CO-LOCATION OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND LARGE
   CURVING HODOGRAPHS. OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGER KINEMATIC
   FIELDS WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER EAST /CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY/. BUT WITH THE DRYLINE STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NERN
   TX SUN NIGHT...TRAINING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
   MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY WARRANT
   AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/26/2014

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