SPC AC 120529
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY MORNING TO AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OHIO
VALLEY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL STATES.
ONE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ATTENDANT SPEED MAX SHOULD SHIFT NWD FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE BASAL PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EWD OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY CYCLONE WILL TRACK ACROSS NWRN
ONTARIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD PROGRESS E/SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE WRN GULF
COAST BY EARLY WED.
...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OH VALLEY...
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAK OWING TO EXTENSIVE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN PRIOR DAYS AND THE MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED
TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON. WITHIN A TRAILING BELT OF 35-45
KT SWLYS AT 700 MB...A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP WITH A
RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
...S TX...
DECAYING CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/TUE ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF E TO S TX. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE/REDEVELOP SWD INTO DEEP S TX THROUGH THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER TIMING IN RELATION TO PEAK
HEATING...SOME DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
STORM INTENSITY AMIDST MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE MODEST...BUT SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE
WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
..GRAMS.. 05/12/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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