Jun 4, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 4 17:33:52 UTC 2014 (20140604 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140604 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140604 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140604 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 166,322 8,602,164 Memphis, TN...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...Springfield, MO...
   SPC AC 041732

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
   AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF KANSAS AND
   OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE OZARKS REGION INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
   TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
   CAROLINAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFF THE
   ATLANTIC SEABOARD EARLY THU...BUT A BROAD SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH WILL
   REMAIN OVER THE ERN STATES...WITH WNWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS EXPECTED
   ACROSS VA AND THE CAROLINAS. FARTHER UPSTREAM A ZONAL PATTERN WILL
   PERSIST FROM THE WEST COAST EWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY
   REGIONS...AND SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
   THROUGH THIS FLOW REGIME. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
   OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING PORTION OF
   THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL FROM OK EWD THROUGH THE OZARKS TO TN
   VALLEY. FARTHER NORTH...A LEAD WIND SHIFT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
   STATIONARY FROM NWRN MN INTO CENTRAL SD AND WRN NEB THROUGH THE
   FIRST HALF OF THU...AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
   EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS.

   ...KS/NRN OK...OZARKS AND THE MID SOUTH TO TN VALLEY REGIONS...
   PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY THIS FORECAST REMAINS THE LOCATION OF FRONT AND
   ONGOING MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THOUGH MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THE
   MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN OK ESEWD ALONG THE MO/AR
   BORDER AREA INTO TN.  STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE IN VICINITY OF
   THIS FRONT SUPPORTED BY RICH MOISTURE /PW OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES/ AND
   STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL ALSO LIKELY
   EXIST WHERE THE EML WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THIS REGION. THIS SHOULD
   LIMIT SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN THE WARM SECTOR.
   HOWEVER...A FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
   NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN OK INTO KS AND SWRN MO SUPPORTED BY
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND
   OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THE LLJ WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

   AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS OVER KS AT 12Z THU. THIS ACTIVITY
   IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD...GENERALLY NORTH OF FRONT THROUGH ERN
   AND SRN KS...NERN OK INTO SRN MO...NRN ARKANSAS AND EVENTUALLY WRN
   PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AREA. INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM THE
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
   SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS
   WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR MCS EPISODES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT.

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   IT STILL APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION WHERE VERTICAL
   SHEAR AND AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000 J PER KG/ WILL
   SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH A
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   ...SERN VA THROUGH ERN NC...
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONGOING STORMS...PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF AN
   MCS...MOVING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS /INTO MD/VA AND CAROLINAS/
   EARLY THU.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRE-FRONTAL
   CONVECTION COULD MITIGATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY
   AND HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
   THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
   UNDERGO SOME DESTABILIZATION THU AFTERNOON /MUCAPE 1000-1500 J PER
   KG/ WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT WHERE
   UNIDIRECTIONAL 30-35 KT SHEAR WILL EXIST.  THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD
   APPEAR TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. 
   HOWEVER...DUE TO POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WITH EARLY DAY
   CONVECTION IN THIS REGION...MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES REMAIN
   UNWARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

   ..PETERS.. 06/04/2014

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