Storm Prediction Center Jun 13, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Prob. Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE	116,586	2,915,437	Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Kearney, NE...Dodge City, KS...Fremont, NE...
45 %	36,716	1,844,855	Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Kearney, NE...Fremont, NE...Norfolk, NE...
30 %	61,227	1,156,387	Fort Dodge, IA...Dodge City, KS...North Platte, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Hays, KS...
15 %	187,935	7,301,787	Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...Saint Paul, MN...Maplewood, MN...Mankato, MN...
5 %	278,282	12,396,080	Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, KS...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...

SPC AC 130600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN NEB...N CNTRL KS...AND WRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA...KANSAS...AND WESTERN IOWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA. ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS OVER THE WARM SECTOR. MEANWHILE...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO 50-60 KT BY 00Z. AT THIS TIME...A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM WRN NEB SWD INTO WRN TX WITH SFC LOW NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW WILL BE AN INVERTED TROUGH...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS CNTRL MN. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FORM DUE TO HEATING AND AN AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A SYNOPTICALLY-EVIDENT OUTBREAK OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES CENTERED OVER NEB...KS...AND WRN IA. ...CNTRL AND ERN NEB...CNTRL AND NRN KS...WRN IA... INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE DAY WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS MAINTAINING MID 60S F DEWPOINTS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL INTENSIFY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INSTABILITY EVEN BEHIND THE DRYLINE DUE TO VERY STRONG HEATING BENEATH COOLING PROFILES ALOFT. THIS ALL BUT ENSURES STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM NEB INTO TX. THE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGH-BASED AT FIRST. GIANT HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NEB INTO KS...AND A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES ESPECIALLY OVER NEB INVOF THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LCLS WILL REMAIN LOWER. MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AFTER 00Z...WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING AND LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...IT IS LIKELY THAT A SEVERE MCS...CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT WIND ALONG WITH HAIL WILL TRAVEL EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEB INTO WRN IA DURING THE EVENING...PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR SERN SD AS WELL. LACK OF MORNING PRECIPITATION...FAVORABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TIMING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STORM MODE AND VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS HAVE ALL CONTRIBUTED TO THE FOCUSED UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK FOR THIS AREA. ...NERN CO INTO WRN NEB... A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE NELY UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HODOGRAPHS WILL BE LONG AND LAPSE RATES STEEP...FAVORING SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL DURING THE DAY WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED SFC VORTICIY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. ...TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK... STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR NEAR THE DRYLINE...WITH FAVORABLE CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. CAPPING WILL BE ERASED DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR SOMEWHAT HIGH-BASED...SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING OUTFLOW. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING EVEN AS CAPPING INCREASES...AIDED BY THE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET. ...ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THE THETA-E SURGE EARLY IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT AND STRONG 850 MB WARM ADVECTION. SOME OF THESE CELLS COULD CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. LATER IN THE DAY...AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO SERN SD WITH WARM FRONT OVER WRN MN. PERSISTENT LIFT AND MOISTENING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AREAS OF STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARIES. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE WARM FRONT. ..JEWELL.. 06/13/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z