SPC AC 141730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
   TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY FROM WISCONSIN
   SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS...EASTERN
   IOWA...MISSOURI...OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS
   PANHANDLE. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL WILL
   BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
   WESTERN STATES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT
   LAKES ON SUNDAY. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A PROMINENT UPPER LOW WILL
   CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
   MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY/MIDWEST. IN
   THE WEST...AN ADDITIONAL UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND
   AMPLIFY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY
   NIGHT.

   ...UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/MIDWEST/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...
   WITH AID OF STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION...A CONSIDERABLE FACTOR
   SUNDAY MORNING IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM /OR AT LEAST THE REMNANTS THEREOF/ ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   VICINITY. EVEN WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL /SOME HAIL OR
   MARGINAL WIND POSSIBLE/ MAY BE AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM SUNDAY
   MORNING...IMPLICATIONS OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/CLOUD DEBRIS
   CONTRIBUTE TO SOME MESOSCALE-RELATED UNCERTAINTIES. ALSO OF
   NOTE...GIVEN THAT THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
   NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION...A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SOMEWHAT
   WEAKENING MASS CONVERGENCE CAN BE EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT.


   REGARDLESS...THE COLD FRONT...ALBEIT LIKELY AUGMENTED BY CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW...WILL CONTINUE A GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
   ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT-PRECEDING AIR MASS SHOULD
   MODERATELY DESTABILIZE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH
   DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
   PARTICULARLY FROM SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/EASTERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL.
   ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE STRONGER
   WESTERLIES ALOFT...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT/MATURATION OF LINE
   SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
   WINDS/SOME HAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

   ...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   WHILE THE EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN IN THE
   PRESENCE OF MODEST LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCES...IT APPEARS THAT A LEAST
   A CONDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED SEVERE RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS WILL
   MAINLY BE IN VICINITY OF THE WEAKENING FRONTAL SEGMENT THAT WILL
   GENERALLY STALL IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION EARLY IN THE
   DAY. ESPECIALLY GIVEN STRONG HEATING NEAR/WEST OF A WEAK SURFACE
   LOW/DRYLINE...THE RELATIVELY GREATEST /ALBEIT STILL UNCERTAIN/
   POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE NEAR A SURFACE
   TRIPLE POINT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OK. AMPLE
   INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE WITHIN THE NEARBY WARM SECTOR WITH
   UPWARDS OF 3500-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE POSSIBLE BY PEAK HEATING...WITH
   SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT /MAXIMIZED NEAR THE FRONTAL
   ZONE/ FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED THE DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS.

   FARTHER SOUTHWEST...OTHER STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS OTHER PARTS OF WEST/SOUTHWEST TX WITHIN A MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE BUT MODESTLY FORCED/WEAKLY SHEARED REGIME.

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON/NIGHT...
   WHILE NOT UNCERTAIN...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
   EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   NORTHEAST/PERHAPS EAST-CENTRAL CO AS EARLY AS MID/LATE AFTERNOON
   SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
   NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH AID OF AN
   AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND A NOCTURNALLY
   STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. IN THIS
   SCENARIO...SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE
   EDGE OF THE EASTWARD-ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. AMPLE ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE PRESENCE OF 40+ KT EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOUD LAYER WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
   FOR LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. SOME
   LARGE-SCALE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO THE UPSTREAM AMPLIFYING
   TROUGH AND THE LATE-NIGHT/END-OF-PERIOD NATURE OF THE PEAK RISK
   PRECLUDES CONSIDERATION OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME IN
   SPITE OF AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.

   ...FL/SOUTHEAST STATES...
   THE AIR MASS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER RIDGE WILL DIURNALLY DESTABILIZE
   SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   /AROUND -9C AT 500 MB/ REMAINING OVER THE FL PENINSULA. ISOLATED
   MARGINAL INSTANCES OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL
   COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

   ..GUYER.. 06/14/2014

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