SPC AC 191730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MN VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS -- WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE MAIN
   THREATS -- WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MINNESOTA VICINITY...WITH
   MORE ISOLATED STORMS/SEVERE RISK EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  OTHER AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING STORMS POSING ISOLATED SEVERE RISK ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A
   PORTION OF THE MID OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION...AND
   ALSO OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND VICINITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN HALF TO
   TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY FRIDAY...WITH THE FASTER BELT OF GENERALLY
   WLY/ZONAL FLOW CONFINED TO THE NRN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  WITHIN THIS
   SOMEWHAT FASTER FLOW FIELD...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/LOW MOVING ACROSS
   THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AND ADJACENT SRN CANADA MAY FOCUS AN
   AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MN VICINITY.  OTHER/
   WEAKER FEATURES -- ONE MOVING OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO THE ID/MT
   VICINITY AND A SECOND MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE MID OH VALLEY REGION
   -- WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED STORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE
   POTENTIAL.

   ...MN VICINITY...
   AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S./SRN CANADA BORDER WILL
   BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT PROGGED TO
   CROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MODERATE
   DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS A
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD
   BE SUFFICIENT TO FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
   MN SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WHILE RELATIVELY MODEST FLOW ALOFT
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE RISK...SOMEWHAT
   GREATER POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE MN VICINITY...WHERE A BELT
   OF STRONGER /35 TO 50 KT/ WLYS ARE FORECAST NEAR THE SRN FRINGE OF
   THE UPPER LOW.  THUS -- WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS
   THIS REGION FOR STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL/WIND INTO
   THE EVENING HOURS.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE MID OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AREA...
   A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
   FOCUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-AFTERNOON...AS
   DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
   YIELDS MODERATE DESTABILIZATION.  THOUGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
   MARGINAL WITH RESPECT TO ORGANIZED STORMS...MODERATE/UNIDIRECTIONAL
   WLY/WNWLY FLOW ABOVE ROUGHLY 800 MB MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO GROW
   UPSCALE INTO ESEWD-MOVING BANDS CAPABLE OF LOCAL WIND/HAIL RISK
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   ...PARTS OF ERN ID INTO SWRN MT...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ACROSS
   PARTS OF ID AND INTO WRN MT...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE PAC
   NW.  MODEST INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
   RISK...BUT WITH ROUGHLY 35 KT WSWLYS AT MID-LEVELS FORECAST IN
   ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
   SEVERE LEVELS -- AND THUS WILL INTRODUCE LOW-PROBABILITY FORECAST
   FOR HAIL/WIND THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   ..GOSS.. 06/19/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z