SPC AC 241731

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
   THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO EASTERN
   COLORADO.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE
   POSSIBLE.  GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE
   NORTHEASTERN U.S. FROM PENNSYLVANIA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW
   ENGLAND.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW FIELD WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S. THIS
   PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN U.S. AND A SECOND
   CROSSING THE ERN U.S. EITHER SIDE OF A ROCKIES/CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE.

   AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHEAST
   U.S. AND A LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE PRIMARY FOCI FOR
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD.

   ...CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   NWWD BENEATH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH WILL
   YIELD MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE THE PRESENCE OF BACKGROUND UPPER RIDGING
   SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST -- AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF LEE
   TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

   WITH 25-35 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS WY/MT -- ATOP
   THE LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW...DEGREE OF SHEAR IS SUGGESTIVE OF
   SEVERE/ROTATING STORMS.  ALONG WITH RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
   AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE RELATIVELY MOIST /UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS/
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...SOME CONGEALING OF
   CONVECTION INTO A FEW SEWD-MOVING CLUSTERS MAY OCCUR...THOUGH SEVERE
   RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.

   ...THE NORTHEAST...
   WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE
   CENTRAL APPALACHIANS STATES NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS UPPER
   TROUGHING MOVES EWD ACROSS THE AREA.  MODEST AFTERNOON
   DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN ASSOCIATED/WEAK LOW
   PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT
   LAKES REGION WILL SUPPORT THE CONVECTIVE INCREASE...THOUGH FAIRLY
   WEAK FLOW ALOFT -- PARTICULARLY S OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE -- WILL
   LIMIT STORM INTENSITY.  FROM PA NEWD HOWEVER...SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
   AROUND 30 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER CELLS/STORM
   CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   ..GOSS.. 06/24/2014

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