SPC AC 250605

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN KS EWD ACROSS THE
   MIDWEST AND OH RIVER VALLEY...

   AMENDED FOR OH VALLEY AREA

   ...SUMMARY...
   BOUTS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
   LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY MAINLY SATURDAY
   NIGHT...WITH SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE ACROSS A
   LARGE AREA FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
   YORK DURING THE DAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES AND INTO WRN PA AND NY DURING THE DAY...WITH A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE
   PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL QUICKLY EWD ACROSS
   WI AND UPPER MI...THEN BECOME STALLED SWWD ACROSS NRN IL...IA...AND
   NRN MO AND KS THROUGH EVENING. A BROAD BELT OF SWLY WINDS IN THE LOW
   LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND BRING SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE NEWD AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT WITH 70S DEWPOINTS INTO IL AND INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. 

   CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY FROM ERN OH INTO
   WRN PA AND NY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD TROUGH...WITH A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL WIND THREAT POSSIBLE FROM IL INTO WRN OH OVERNIGHT AS
   LIFT INCREASES WITH THE LARGER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION. 
    
   ...LOWER MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...
   EARLY DAY STORMS ACROSS INDIANA AND OH SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD WITH
   A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING WITH FULL HEATING TO THE W.
   WEAK FORCING NEAR THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS DURING
   THE DAY WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST SEVERE
   WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FROM
   CENTRAL IL EWD ACROSS INDIANA...NRN KY AND WRN OH. MODELS ARE IN
   GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF STRONG STORMS...PERHAPS A
   SEVERE MCS. GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND INCREASING
   SHEAR PROFILES OVERNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING HOW EARLIER STORMS WILL AFFECT THE
   AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. IN
   ADDITION...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ALSO FAVOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD THE
   STORMS NOT MELD TOGETHER SO QUICKLY. GIVEN THIS POSSIBLE STORM
   MODE...A COUPLE TORNADOES COULD OCCUR. 

   ...WRN PA...WRN NY...ERN OH...
   LIFT FROM WARM ADVECTION NEAR AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT AND IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW-AMPLITUDE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VEERING
   WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND FAVORABLE FLOW ALOFT INDICATE A THREAT OF
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A
   TORNADO. 

   ...NERN MN INTO NRN WI LATE...
   SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH THE SEWD-MOVING
   UPPER LOW. GIVEN A RATHER DRY AIR MASS LEFT IN PLACE BEHIND THE
   MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AHEAD OF THIS
   FEATURE. STILL...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL
   FAVOR A FEW SMALL CORES WITH HAIL...MOST LIKELY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

   ..JEWELL.. 07/25/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z