SPC AC 051731

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2014

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF SRN IA/NRN MO AND
   ADJACENT SE NEB/NE KS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS AND MISSOURI VALLEY...AS WELL AS NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
   GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY BE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER UT/CO/WY NOW WILL CREST THE
   HIGH PLAINS MIDLEVEL RIDGE AND THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY ESEWD TO THE
   MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY...LOOSELY IN PHASE WITH A SEPARATE TROUGH
   MOVING ESEWD FROM MT TO THE DAKOTAS/MN.  AT THE SURFACE...A REMNANT
   LEE CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD TO NW MO
   BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  E OF THE SURFACE LOW...A STALLED FRONT
   WILL LINGER FROM SE NEB EWD ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER.  LOW-MIDLEVEL
   ASCENT IS EXPECTED NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY E OF THE SURFACE LOW...IN A
   ZONE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL DCVA AND LOW-LEVEL WAA.  THIS ZONE OF ASCENT
   WILL FOCUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THROUGH THE DAY
   2 PERIOD.

   OTHERWISE...A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
   EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
   COASTS BY EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. 
   INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
   TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
   AS MIDLEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH.

   ...SRN IA/NRN MO...
   THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND
   WAA WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
   THE STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON
   THE SRN FLANK OF ANY ONGOING MORNING CONVECTION.  ONLY MODEST
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED IN A RELATIVELY SHALLOW REMNANT
   EML PLUME ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD
   MOIST CONVECTION IN PREVIOUS DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLATEAU. 
   STILL...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND
   DAYTIME HEATING WILL BOOST MLCAPE TO NEAR 1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON
   ALONG AND S OF THE STALLED FRONT.

   DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED SINCE THE ONLY
   CONTRIBUTION TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   BE THE RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN A WEAKLY BAROCLINIC REGIME. 
   THUS...STORM MODE WILL TEND MORE TOWARD CLUSTERS WITH A MARGINAL
   RISK FOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS AND HAIL.  SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...THOUGH THE
   PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
   RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MESSY CONVECTIVE MODES.

   ..THOMPSON.. 08/05/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z