Aug 14, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Thu Aug 14 17:15:18 UTC 2014 ( | ) | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||
Probabilistic Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| |||||||||
SPC AC 141715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2014 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW OVER ERN WA WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY TRAVELS INTO WRN MT...WITH A BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING FROM ORE/SRN ID INTO SWRN MT. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. TO THE E...A NWLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. IN BETWEEN THE SWRN UPPER HIGH AND UPPER LOW OVER THE NERN STATES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIST FROM THE CNTRL DAKOTAS INTO WRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...WRN MT... COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED STORMS. INCREASING SPEEDS WITH HEIGHT WITH THE UPPER JET MAX AND FAVORABLE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL PRODUCTION. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO COLD DOWNDRAFTS AND COINCIDENCE WITH MAX HEATING. ...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... AREAS OF STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN MT...THE WRN DAKOTAS AND WRN NEB FRI MORNING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK AT THIS POINT WITH LITTLE SEVERE THREAT. LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR UPSTREAM ACROSS WRN NEB AND KS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE SLY LOW-LEVEL JET E OF THE SFC TROUGH. SOME REJUVENATION OF EARLIER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR WITH MAINLY A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BUT OVERALL...SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINING SPARSE. ..JEWELL.. 08/14/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |