Aug 14, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 14 17:15:18 UTC 2014 (20140814 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140814 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140814 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20140814 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 295,512 6,479,903 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Spokane, WA...Des Moines, IA...Sioux Falls, SD...
   SPC AC 141715

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2014

   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION
   THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW OVER ERN WA WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY TRAVELS INTO WRN
   MT...WITH A BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING FROM
   ORE/SRN ID INTO SWRN MT. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
   SCATTERED STORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

   TO THE E...A NWLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.
   IN BETWEEN THE SWRN UPPER HIGH AND UPPER LOW OVER THE NERN STATES. A
   SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIST FROM THE CNTRL DAKOTAS INTO WRN
   KS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
   THROUGH THE PERIOD.  

   ...WRN MT...
   COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
   HEATING WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED STORMS.
   INCREASING SPEEDS WITH HEIGHT WITH THE UPPER JET MAX AND FAVORABLE
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL PRODUCTION. A FEW STRONG TO
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO COLD DOWNDRAFTS AND
   COINCIDENCE WITH MAX HEATING.

   ...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
   AREAS OF STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN MT...THE WRN
   DAKOTAS AND WRN NEB FRI MORNING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. SHEAR AND
   LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK AT THIS POINT WITH LITTLE SEVERE THREAT.
   LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR UPSTREAM ACROSS WRN NEB
   AND KS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE SLY LOW-LEVEL JET E OF THE SFC
   TROUGH. SOME REJUVENATION OF EARLIER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR WITH
   MAINLY A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BUT OVERALL...SHEAR WILL
   BE WEAK WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINING SPARSE.

   ..JEWELL.. 08/14/2014

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