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| Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 260559 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW STORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS LIKELY POSING AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK. ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE MAIN BELT OF FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO SETTLE GRADUALLY SWD ACROSS SRN CANADA AND INTO THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS...THE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN FARTHER S...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. DURING THE DAY...BUT IT WILL BE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY -- LYING W-E ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- THAT WILL FOCUS THE MOST ACTIVE/SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...ERN CO/KS/NEB AND INTO IA/NWRN MO... LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...ON THE WRN FRINGE OF A REMNANT W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED -- NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE AS WELL AS EWD NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND INTO IA...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES ATOP THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH THAT SAID...THE OVERALL FLOW FIELD ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST...WITH A BELT OF GENERALLY 20 TO 30 KT SWLYS AT MID LEVELS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE TROUGH. THOUGH THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SOME DEGREE...THE OVERALL FLOW FIELD APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE EVENT. WHILE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA ATTM. ..GOSS.. 08/26/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |
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