SPC AC 050509

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1209 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2014

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TN...FAR ERN
   AR...NRN MS AND AL...EXTREME SRN KY...MO BOOTHEEL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN
   ARKANSAS INTO TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING AREAS. A TORNADO OR TWO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN
   MISSISSIPPI.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
   WILL DIVE SEWD INTO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE DAY WITH
   SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT AND INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES. IN THE LOW
   LEVELS...SWLY FLOW WILL BRING HIGHER THETA-E AIR NEWD FROM THE SRN
   PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH A NARROW ZONE OF MID 50S
   DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS SRN KY BY 00Z. WHILE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...INCREASING
   LARGE-SCALE LIFT VIA DEEP-LAYER DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE AND MINIMAL
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD YIELD A ZONE OF SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY
   FROM THE MS RIVER NEWD ACROSS TN AND POSSIBLY NRN MS/AL DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

   OTHER WEAKER STORMS ARE EXPECTED NWD ACROSS OH AS WELL WHERE MAINLY
   SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ...ERN AR...NRN MS AND AL...MUCH OF TN...EXTREME SRN KY...
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY DUE TO
   HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND COOLING ALOFT.
   MOST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CIN NEARLY GONE BY 18Z FROM WRN KY/TN
   WWD ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE TIMED
   AROUND 21Z...WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS MOST
   LIKELY CENTERED ACROSS TN. THE NAM SOLUTION IS THE NRN-MOST IN TERMS
   OF QPF AXIS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER S INTO SRN TN/NRN MS AND
   AL. 

   WHILE PRECISE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST THREAT MAY BE IN QUESTION...STORM
   MODE SHOULD BE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY SUPERCELLULAR WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS
   AND SUFFICIENT SRH IN THE LOWEST FEW KM. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
   FAVOR LARGE HAIL...WITH SIG HAIL THREAT DEPENDENT MAINLY ON
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE.

   WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT WOULD
   APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CELLS TO PRODUCE TORNADOES. THE TORNADO
   THREAT WILL ALSO DEPEND HEAVILY ON ACTUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
   CONTENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

   GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE...WEAK SURFACE
   PATTERN AND MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH MAIN QPF CORRIDOR...WILL DEFER
   ANY UPGRADES TO 30 PERCENT AND/OR SIG HAIL TO LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE
   CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

   ..JEWELL.. 10/05/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z