SPC AC 270549

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO
   KY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD OF DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES TO KENTUCKY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE YET AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
   SHOULD REACH THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AREA BY 12Z/WED. ATTENDANT
   SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
   N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E/SE ACROSS THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES TO TN VALLEY BY TUE EVENING...WITH TRAILING PORTION
   SINKING S IN TX/LA. 

   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES TO KY...
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE MODEST IN THE WARM SECTOR AS M-T AIR
   MASS IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE CARIBBEAN. MODIFIED MOISTURE
   RETURN SHOULD YIELD A NARROW PLUME OF MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S
   SURFACE DEW POINTS BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
   APPALACHIANS. IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AOB 500 J/KG. 

   GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
   70S DOWNSTREAM OF MORNING FRONTAL CONVECTION. THIS WILL SERVE TO
   STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST STRONG TO INTENSE
   MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WITH 700 MB WINDS AOA 50 KT FROM THE OH VALLEY
   N. THIS SHOULD YIELD INTENSIFYING CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT DURING
   THE AFTERNOON. BUT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE
   CONUS...ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL LARGELY PARALLEL THE
   FRONT AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH SWRN EXTENT. ON
   THE TRAILING PERIPHERY OF DEEPER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...POTENTIAL FOR
   FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS WOULD BE GREATEST NEAR THE LOWER GREAT
   LAKES WHERE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL
   PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK THIS OUTLOOK.

   ..GRAMS.. 10/27/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z