Storm Prediction Center Oct 31, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Oct 31, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Updated: Fri Oct 31 05:49:29 UTC 2014 (

)

Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Categorical Graphic

Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Graphic

20141031 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic

Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

Prob. Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

   SPC AC 310549

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
   BASIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE
   MID-ATLANTIC COAST/COASTAL CAROLINAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S.
   SATURDAY...WITH WRN AND ERN TROUGHS -- FLANKING A CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
   -- MAKING GRADUAL EWD PROGRESS.

   WITH A COOL/CONTINENTAL SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
   U.S. E OF THE ROCKIES...DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE
   MINIMIZED IN MOST AREAS.  SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   INVOF THE E COAST BENEATH THE ERN TROUGH...BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD
   REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE RISK.

   IN THE W...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN U.S.
   TROUGH WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
   EMBEDDED/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
   W/ROCKIES.  HOWEVER...RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MINIMAL DUE TO
   LACK OF APPRECIABLE CAPE.

   ..GOSS.. 10/31/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z