SPC AC 190607

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1207 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR OVER WESTERN NEW YORK EAST OF
   LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TEXAS
   THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A PROGRESSIVE REGIME AS ERN U.S.
   UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES AND MOVES TOWARD ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A
   WEAK...LOW-AMPLITUDE...SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
   THROUGH OK AND NRN TX...WHILE A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVES SEWD THROUGH CA...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE
   SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN STATES.
   UPSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE...A WARM FRONT WILL RETURN NWD THROUGH TX.

   ...WRN NY...

   SECONDARY SURGE OF CP AIR WITH LONG FETCHES OVER LAKES ERIE AND
   ONTARIO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION
   WHICH MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

   ...ERN TX...

   INCREASING SLY WINDS OVER THE WRN GULF WILL ADVECT PARTIALLY
   MODIFIED GULF AIR /LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS/ NWD THROUGH THE TX
   WARM SECTOR BENEATH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS PROCESS WILL
   RESULT IN AT LEAST MARGINAL MUCAPE /AOB 500 J/KG/ OVER A PORTION OF
   ERN TX. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE DEVELOPING
   WARM-ADVECTION REGIME. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
   THE UNSTABLE LAYERS WILL REMAIN SHALLOW AND CONFINED TO REGIONS
   WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE TOO WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE
   AND LIGHTNING FORMATION.

   ..DIAL.. 11/19/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z