SPC AC 201722

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF W CENTRAL
   TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
   FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN THREAT
   WILL BE MARGINAL HAIL.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN U.S. DEPARTS
   FRIDAY...A MORE ZONAL NRN STREAM IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE. 
   MEANWHILE...A SHORTER-WAVELENGTH SRN-STREAM SYSTEM -- INITIALLY OVER
   THE GREAT BASIN VICINITY -- IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE
   DESERT SW AND INTO NRN MEXICO WITH TIME.  THOUGH A STABLE
   CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. THIS
   PERIOD...SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE S CENTRAL U.S.
   AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS THE TX VICINITY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

   ...PORTIONS OF W CENTRAL TX...
   A INCREASE IN QG FORCING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF TX DURING
   THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET
   STRENGTHENS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING NWRN MEXICO AND ADJACENT SWRN CONUS. 
   MODEST ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION OWING TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
   BENEATH MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE H7 MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE
   IN SHOWERS AND -- EVENTUALLY -- THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS DURING LATTER STAGES OF THE PERIOD.  AIDED BY
   MID-LEVEL SWLYS AROUND 35 KT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...ONE
   OR TWO ORGANIZED/LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS MAY EVOLVE...AND THUS SOME
   RISK FOR MARGINAL HAIL REMAINS APPARENT.  ATTM HOWEVER...THE RISK
   APPEARS LIMITED/ISOLATED...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A MARGINAL
   RISK AREA THIS FORECAST.

   ..GOSS.. 11/20/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z