Dec 8, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Dec 8 06:11:18 UTC 2014 (20141208 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141208 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141208 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20141208 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 080611

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1211 AM CST MON DEC 08 2014

   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL
   PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

   ...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

   STRONG MID-LEVEL JET WILL DIG INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
   GA THEN EJECT TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD.  EXIT
   REGION OF THIS EJECTING SPEED MAX WILL ENHANCE UVV/MOISTENING ACROSS
   COASTAL PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE FORECAST BUOYANCY IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  WHILE
   SFC LOW COULD DRIFT ONSHORE NEAR ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND...ELEVATED
   PARCELS LIFTED WITHIN THE 900-850MB LAYER SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION
   ZONE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW.

   ...PACIFIC NW...

   WARM CONVEYOR WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD
   AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  WHILE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL
   LIKELY BE NOTED WITHIN THIS CONVEYOR...IT APPEARS FORECAST
   INSTABILITY IS A BIT TOO WEAK TO WARRANT MORE THAN ONE OR TWO
   LIGHTNING STRIKES...MAINLY OFFSHORE.  FOR THIS REASON HAVE REDUCED
   THUNDER PROBABILITIES ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST.

   ..DARROW.. 12/08/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z