Jan 7, 2014 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 7 08:28:45 UTC 2014 (20140107 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140107 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140107 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140107 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 070826

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CST TUE JAN 07 2014

   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY DEVELOPING
   SPLIT UPPER FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH DUAL AMPLIFYING TROUGHS...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH
   PLAINS AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO. AIR
   MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS...AIDED
   BY SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER
   60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE COMMON ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN HALF OF TX.

   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
   NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY FOR AREAS SUCH AS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX
   INTO PARTS OF OK. INFLUENCES OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER TROUGH
   AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/ELEVATED MOISTENING SHOULD LEAD TO
   PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...WITH A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT /ALBEIT WEAK/
   OF INSTABILITY POTENTIALLY FOR SOME TSTMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
   FRIDAY. NO SEVERE TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED GIVEN RELATIVELY
   LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

   ...SOUTH FL VICINITY...
   AIR MASS MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG/SOUTH OF A
   NORTHWARD-SHIFTING MARITIME BOUNDARY...WITH UPPER 60S F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS BECOMING INCREASINGLY COMMON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
   FL. WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD OF INLAND CONVECTION IS
   UNCERTAIN...SUFFICIENT LIFT/INSTABILITY MAY COINCIDE FOR ISOLATED
   TSTMS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTH FL/KEYS VICINITY AND/OR IN THE
   NEARBY ATLANTIC.

   ..GUYER.. 01/07/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z