Jan 8, 2014 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 8 08:16:46 UTC 2014 (20140108 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140108 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140108 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140108 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 080814

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 AM CST WED JAN 08 2014

   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VERY PROGRESSIVE/INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
   EXIST OVER THE CONUS FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...AN UPPER
   TROUGH/STRENGTHENING POLAR JET ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE AN EASTWARD
   TRANSITION FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO MO RIVER
   VALLEY/ARKLATEX BY EARLY SATURDAY. PRIMARY ASSOCIATED SURFACE
   CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MO VALLEY/UPPER
   MIDWEST...WITH AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATING COLD FRONT ACROSS
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. 

   ...EAST/SOUTHEAST TX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
   AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...INLAND
   CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY ABATE INTO FRIDAY
   WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
   AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO PREVALENT
   SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS/MO VALLEY...WITH THE WARM SECTOR GRADUALLY
   MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY/EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
   EAST/SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA/SOUTHERN MS.

   GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE GULF OF
   MEXICO...THE PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY RELATES TO THE EXACT
   DEGREE/QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN FRIDAY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST TX
   AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTATIONS OF
   INLAND PRECIPITATION...THIS HAS ASSOCIATED RAMIFICATIONS ON
   AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN MODEST REGARDLESS /500 J
   PER KG MLCAPE OR LESS/. WHILE LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR NEAR-SURFACE BASED TSTMS AMID WEAK
   BUOYANCY...STRONGER/POTENTIALLY SEVERE SURFACE BASED STORMS WOULD BE
   MORE CERTAIN WITH MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
   RELEGATED TO NEAR-COASTAL AREAS /ROUGHLY WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE
   GULF OF MEXICO/. IF/WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION DOES OCCUR
   FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED POTENTIAL
   WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO RISK GIVEN THE
   EXPECTED STRENGTHENING AND MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL
   SRH.

   ..GUYER.. 01/08/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z