Jan 9, 2014 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 9 08:33:46 UTC 2014 (20140109 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140109 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140109 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140109 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 65,482 8,258,126 Jacksonville, FL...Raleigh, NC...Fayetteville, NC...Cary, NC...Savannah, GA...
   SPC AC 090830

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CST THU JAN 09 2014

   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
   STATES/CAROLINAS...

   ...SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS...
   AS A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS ON
   SATURDAY...A POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A STEADY
   EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY VICINITY EARLY
   SATURDAY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY SUNDAY. AMPLE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ASIDE...A CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE DEEP-LAYER WIND
   FIELD IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD...HIGHLIGHTED BY 100+
   KT MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH 50-70 KT WINDS AROUND 850
   MB...COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST PRE-COLD FRONTAL WARM
   SECTOR.

   FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDE THE TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
   FRONT AND THE EXTENSIVENESS OF EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION...ASIDE FROM
   THE EXACT DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR MOISTENING AND DIURNAL
   DESTABILIZATION. REGARDLESS...IF/WHERE AT LEAST SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION MATERIALIZES OF AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
   MLCAPE...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HIGHLY ORGANIZED/STRONG STORM
   MODES CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO RISK GIVEN THE HIGH
   DEGREE OF VERTICAL SHEAR/SRH.

   ..GUYER.. 01/09/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z