Jan 11, 2014 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 11 07:35:46 UTC 2014 (20140111 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140111 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140111 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140111 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 110733

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0133 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2014

   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS INDICATE THAT AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
   THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
   U.S...WITH A RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD EITHER SIDE OF AN AXIS NEAR
   THE PACIFIC COAST...WHILE LARGE-SCALE DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING EVOLVES
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES.  THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL
   INCLUDE A SPLIT PAIR OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
   PROGRESS EAST OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND U.S. PLAINS.  THE
   11/00Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN PRIOR RUNS WITH THE
   SOUTHERN IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WHICH NOW IS FORECAST TO
   TRACK FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS INTO THE LEE OF
   THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  THIS APPEARS TO REDUCE THE MODEL SPREAD
   FOR THIS PERIOD AND GENERALLY INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. 
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF
   MEXICO...INLAND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...SHOULD BE MORE MODEST
   THAN THAT WHICH HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY.  IT STILL COULD BE SUFFICIENT
   TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF
   STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
   NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD IMPACT IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
   COASTAL AREAS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...SEVERE
   POTENTIAL FARTHER INLAND APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

   ..KERR.. 01/11/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z