Jan 12, 2014 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 12 08:18:46 UTC 2014 (20140112 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140112 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140112 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140112 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 120815

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0215 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2014

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   DAYS APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  MODELS
   CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING OF EASTERN U.S. UPPER
   TROUGHING...BETWEEN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS...IN
   RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED DIGGING OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING COLD INTRUSION IN LOWER LEVELS.  THERE
   REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING SHORT WAVE
   DEVELOPMENTS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN
   ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG OR EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. 
   EARLY PERIOD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BASED WITHIN A LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME...MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
   ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
   SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
   NEAR COASTAL AREAS.  HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WEAK INSTABILITY OVER
   INLAND AREAS...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   AND VERTICAL SHEAR ALL SEEM LIKELY TO PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE RISK
   FOR SEVERE STORMS.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...GENERALLY
   DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL.

   ..KERR.. 01/12/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z