Jan 15, 2014 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 15 08:02:47 UTC 2014 (20140115 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140115 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140115 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140115 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 150800

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 AM CST WED JAN 15 2014

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMANATING FROM A STRONG ZONAL
   MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET APPEARS LIKELY TO BE FORCED NORTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC DURING THIS PERIOD.  AS IT
   APPROACHES SOUTHERN ALASKA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA...IT MAY CONTRIBUTE
   TO SOME WEAKENING OF PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE PACIFIC
   COAST.  IN GENERAL...THOUGH...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE
   PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA FROM THURSDAY INTO
   FRIDAY.  

   ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
   THROUGH THE BASE OF LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
   U.S...BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. 
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
   REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL
   ALSO IMPACT THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WATERS OFF THE MIDDLE AND
   SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST.  GIVEN THE LACK OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
   SUBSTANTIVE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THESE
   AREAS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE U.S. IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   MINIMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND.

   ..KERR.. 01/15/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z