Feb 14, 2014 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 14 07:15:48 UTC 2014 (20140214 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140214 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140214 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140214 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 140713

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LOW-AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
   DAY 3 PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS TO CROSS THE U.S. AS THEY
   PROGRESS THROUGH THE FAST FLOW FIELD.  

   LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL PAC NW LATE
   DAY 2 IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH/SHIFT EWD EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD...PERHAPS FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL EPISODE OF SCATTERED
   SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.


   MEANWHILE...A VORT MAX CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE DAY IS
   PROGGED TO INDUCE LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS BY AFTERNOON.  OVERNIGHT...THE DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO
   CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALLOWING SOME WEAK NWD RETURN OF HIGHER
   THETA-E LOW-LEVEL AIR TO OCCUR.  HOWEVER...WHILE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
   WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE UPPER SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES THE
   ROCKIES...MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WITHIN THE SURFACE
   WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR APPRECIABLE
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL E OF THE MOUNTAINS.

   ..GOSS.. 02/14/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z