SPC AC 280722

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2014

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
   INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

   ...NRN PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID
   TO UPPER MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
   TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM ERN ND SWWD INTO WCNTRL
   SD. AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
   LOWER TO MID 60S F WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
   DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. MODIFIED NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   AT 21Z/FRI FOR ABERDEEN SD AND SCOTTSBLUFF NEB SHOW MLCAPE OF 1200
   TO 1500 J/KG WITH WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. THE WEAK SHEAR
   SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS UNORGANIZED.
   HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY STEEP WHICH MAY ENABLE
   THE STRONGER CELLS TO HAVE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
   A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST STRENGTHEN FRIDAY EVENING FROM CNTRL NEB
   NNEWD TO NCNTRL MN. THIS MAY SUSTAIN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT INTO
   THE EVENING AS SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.

   ..BROYLES.. 05/28/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z