SPC AC 150828

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN FL THROUGH SRN GA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND WILL
   LIKELY DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA MONDAY
   MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY WITH FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF
   THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SFC A
   LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES
   TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND SWWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND THE GULF.
   THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN U.S.
   AND MOST OF FL DURING THE PERIOD.  

   ...NRN FL THROUGH SRN GA...

   MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
   SECTOR ACROSS NRN FL INTO SRN GA AND CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK
   INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE ZONE OF
   STRONGEST LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
   TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC
   REGION...BUT DEEP LAYER WINDS IN MORE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM
   SECTOR OVER GA AND NRN FL WILL BE RESPECTABLE...CONTRIBUTING TO
   45-55 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
   THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND WILL DEVELOP EWD DURING THE DAY. GIVEN
   THE STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR A
   FEW ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
   THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN A LIMITING
   FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

   ..DIAL.. 11/15/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z