Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 010040
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 PM CST WED DEC 31 2014
VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE TONIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS/TEXAS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD SHIFT OR
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
OVERNIGHT...FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. THIS MOVEMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO
AN IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN THROUGH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
ITS CIRCULATION. AS THIS LATTER FEATURE TURNS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AFTER 01/06Z...AN ASSOCIATED ENHANCEMENT OF
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS POSSIBLE
DOWNSTREAM...FROM PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. COUPLED WITH MOISTENING ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ABOVE COLD SURFACE RIDGING ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THIS COULD SUPPORT WEAK DESTABILIZATION AT
MID-LEVELS /BASED ROUGHLY AROUND 700 MB/. WHILE CONVECTION EMBEDDED
WITHIN A DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
BROADER-SCALE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT APPEARS POSSIBLE...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING REMAINS BELOW THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A
CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM AREA.
..KERR.. 01/01/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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