Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 051608
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 AM CST MON JAN 05 2015
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
A LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE REINFORCED
BY A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100+ KT JET
STREAK AT 500 MB WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE PACIFIC NW AND CANADIAN COASTS...TO THE NORTH
OF A LOWER-LATITUDE CLOSED SYSTEM SITUATED OFF THE BAJA COAST.
AT THE SURFACE...AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN WHILE DEVELOPING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST...AHEAD OF A
MIGRATORY LOW TRACKING FROM ERN MT INTO THE OH VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...A
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FL
PENINSULA.
12Z MIAMI AND KEY WEST SOUNDINGS SAMPLED A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWEST-100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF
15-16 G/KG. HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE WAS SURMOUNTED BY A RELATIVELY
WARM...WEAK LAPSE RATE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. AND WHILE A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
FORMING ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
TSTM ACTIVITY.
ELSEWHERE...DRY...STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
..MEAD.. 01/05/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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