Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 091912
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CST FRI JAN 09 2015
VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.
NO CHANGE IS NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
..SMITH.. 01/09/2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST FRI JAN 09 2015/
...DISCUSSION...
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY BE INADEQUATE FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CONUS WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINING CENTERED OVER ERN N AMERICA. MEAGER ELEVATED BUOYANCY
MIGHT DEVELOP OVER DEEP S TX EARLY SAT WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA OCCURRING
DOWNSTREAM OF A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER NWRN MEXICO. A
TSTM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT
PROBABILITIES WILL BE COMPARATIVELY HIGHER IN THE D2 TIME FRAME.
ELSEWHERE...LK EFFECT SNOW BAND E OF LK ONTARIO SHOULD DIMINISH FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE REORGANIZING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL MIXED LAYER...COLD THERMAL
PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT MIXED-PHASE PARTICLES AND LESSEN THE
CHANCE FOR CG STRIKES.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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