Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 191609
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015
VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH ANY AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE W COAST OCCURRING AFTER 12Z TUE. PHASED NRN-STREAM AND
SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO THE MID MS AND LWR
MS VALLEYS...RESPECTIVELY. MINIMAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FEATURES WITH THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINING HOSTILE TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW WILL
CONTINUE EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENT OVER
THIS REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTANT FROM A
COLD ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE -- TFX REPORTED A 500MB TEMP OF -30 DEG C
AT 12Z -- WHICH MAY RESULT IN WEAK BUOYANCY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT TSTM CHANCES REMAIN LESS THAN
10 PERCENT.
..MOSIER.. 01/19/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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