SPC AC 231233

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0633 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

   VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS COASTAL CENTRAL/ERN FL
   PANHANDLE TO FL W COAST TODAY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PROCEED ACROSS
   NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA TODAY.  MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
   GUSTS OR A BRIEF TORNADO EXISTS IN THAT AREA.  A SECOND AREA OF
   STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
   CAROLINA COASTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN
   MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY ATTM.  PRIMARY CONVECTIVELY PERTINENT
   FEATURE IS STG TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NRN IL SWWD ACROSS SRN
   KS TO TX PERMIAN BASIN REGION...WITH BASAL VORTICITY MAX EVIDENT
   OVER BIG BEND/LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGIONS.  TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT
   EWD...FASTER ON ITS SRN END...REACHING ERN MO...ARKLATEX AND TX
   COASTAL BEND BY 00Z.  TROUGH THEN SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD OVER
   CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...MOB/PNS REGION AND ADJOINING PARTS OF NRN
   GULF BY END OF PERIOD. THIS PERTURBATION GRADUALLY WILL LOSE SOME
   AMPLITUDE...BUT REMAIN STG THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS TILT BECOMES
   SLIGHTLY LESS POSITIVE.  

   AT SFC...WEAK/ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z
   OVER GULF WATERS BETWEEN MS RIVER MOUTH AND PAM.  LOW IS FCST TO
   CONSOLIDATE/STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS SRN GA TODAY. 
   TRACK OF THIS FEATURE AND ACCOMPANYING BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SOMEWHAT
   UNCERTAIN GIVEN 
   1. EXPANSIVE AREA OF PRECIP AND COLD/STABLE SFC AIR NOW JUXTAPOSED
   OVER SRN AL/GA AND WRN FL PANHANDLE AND 
   2. BAND OF STG TSTMS NOW MOVING EWD OVER AREAS FROM PAM SWWD.  

   OVERNIGHT...SFC CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN FURTHER AND MOVE NEWD ALONG
   HYBRID DAMMING/SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE OVER ERN GA...SRN/ERN SC AND
   ERN NC.  TRAILING COLD FRONT -- LIKELY PRECEDED BY ONE OR MORE
   NEARLY FRONT-PARALLEL BANDS OF TSTMS -- WILL MOVE EWD OVER
   WRN/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE BY 00Z...THEN OFFSHORE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS
   N-CENTRAL FL AROUND 12Z.  MARINE/WARM FRONT NOW OVER NERN GULF MAY
   BRIEFLY REACH AREAS AROUND AAF BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY
   CONVECTION/PRECIP. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER
   MARINE/THERMAL FRONTAL ZONE TODAY AND TONIGHT OFF CAROLINAS...AND
   ALONG W EDGE OF GULF STREAM...WITH SLGT INLAND TRANSPORT OF MODIFIED
   AIR MASS POSSIBLE. 

   ...NERN GULF COAST REGION TODAY...
   ALTHOUGH MOST OF IT SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE ALONG AND S OF MARINE
   FRONT...SOME SVR THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TSTM AREA MAY
   BRUSH COASTAL AREAS FROM PAM-AAF DURING NEXT FEW HOURS.  REF SPC
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 37 FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS.

   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PROBABLY SRH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED TODAY
   INVOF INTERSECTION OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND AND
   ANTECEDENT/SSW-NNE-ORIENTED CONFLUENCE LINE OVER GULF.  THIS
   INTERSECTION ALSO SHOULD PROPAGATE CLOSE TO OR ALONG NEWD-MOVING
   MARINE BOUNDARY...S OF WHICH MID-UPPER-60S F SFC DEW POINTS WILL
   OFFSET MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO SUPPORT 300-800 J/KG
   MLCAPE...AMIDST FAVORABLY LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS.
    SEVERAL SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED OFFSHORE WRN FL PANHANDLE DURING
   PAST 6 HOURS...IN AND NEAR THAT OPTIMALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
   HOWEVER...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS WITH PRECIP STABILIZING AIR N OF
   MARINE FRONT AND IMPEDING ITS COASTWARD MOTION...OPTIMAL LOW-LEVEL
   AIR MASS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE...OR AT MOST...BRUSH AAF VICINITY.  

   OVER WRN FL PENINSULA...PRECONVECTIVE FLOW SHOULD VEER AS STRONGEST
   ISALLOBARIC FORCING EJECTS WELL NEWD AWAY FROM AREA...AHEAD OF
   DEPARTING SFC CYCLONE.  WHILE POTENTIALLY ADVECTING RELATIVELY
   HIGH-THETAE GULF AIR SOMEWHAT INLAND...THIS PROCESS ALSO WILL REDUCE
   BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM LATE THIS AFTN
   ONWARD. AS SUCH...SVR THREAT THERE APPEARS MRGL AT MOST.

   ....COASTAL CAROLINAS LATE...
   WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM TONIGHT ALONG/AHEAD
   OF FRONT AND MOVE ENEWD...OFFERING STG TO MRGL-SVR GUST POTENTIAL
   AND NON-ZERO TORNADO/WATERSPOUT THREAT.  SVR RISK HERE IS
   CONDITIONAL ON VERY SMALL TOLERANCE OF TIMING/PLACEMENT OF TSTM
   INITIATION VERSUS WARM SECTOR ADVECTED FROM ATLC AHEAD OF FRONT. 
   BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EITHER OVER IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OR
   BARELY OFFSHORE...WITH MINOR...MESOBETA- TO MESOGAMMA-SCALE TIMING
   ADJUSTMENTS INVOLVED IN WHETHER SVR THREAT ULTIMATELY FORMS OVER
   LAND OR WATER.  AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN JUST MRGL UNCONDITIONAL SVR
   PROBABILITIES OVER THIS AREA.

   ..EDWARDS/PICCA.. 01/23/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z