Palm Bay, FL...Melbourne, FL...Yeehaw Junction, FL...West Melbourne, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
10,047
1,417,446
Palm Bay, FL...Melbourne, FL...Yeehaw Junction, FL...West Melbourne, FL...Micco, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
9,988
1,392,840
Palm Bay, FL...Melbourne, FL...Yeehaw Junction, FL...West Melbourne, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 240548
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF SRN FL...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AS WELL AS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS VICINITY. A MARGINAL RISK FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR A
BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST UNTIL MID MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
...SYNOPSIS...
SRN STREAM POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF PHASING
WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH. THE SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE SERN U.S. TODAY...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE EXITING THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. PRECEDING THIS FEATURE A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SWWD
THROUGH COASTAL NC INTO NCNTRL FL AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD...EXITING THE SRN TIP OF FL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
...S FL...
PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD INTO
SRN FL THIS MORNING WHERE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SIZEABLE 0-2
KM HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST. WEAK INSTABILITY PERSISTS IN THE FL WARM
SECTOR WITH MUCAPE LIKELY TO REMAIN GENERALLY AOB 800 J/KG. FORECAST
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOW A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-500 MB WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S...AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
BRIEF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING.
..DIAL/COHEN.. 01/24/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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