Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 101237
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2015
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
WHILE ISOLATED LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
OR SOUTHERN COLORADO...AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FCST TO BUILD AND MOVE INLAND OVER PAC
COAST STATES AND WRN CANADA...AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES
OUT OF WRN PORTIONS OF CANADA AND CONUS. ONE SUCH PERTURBATION --
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN SD AND
N-CENTRAL/NERN NEB -- IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS MN AND NRN IA
TODAY. BY 00Z...THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH WRN WI...ITS VORTICITY
FIELD STARTING TO MERGE WITH THAT OF ANOTHER TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER
SERN SK AND NWRN ND. COMBINED PERTURBATION BY 12Z SHOULD EXTEND
FROM SWRN WI NEWD ACROSS ERN LS TO NERN ONT. MEANWHILE...TROUGH NOW
LOCATED OVER GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS 4-CORNERS
REGION...AND HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH NOW LOCATED FROM CENTRAL NC SWD
TO WRN BAHAMAS WILL MOVE ENTIRELY/FARTHER OFFSHORE.
AT SFC...LOWS ANALYZED AT 11Z OVER WRN ND AND CENTRAL SD ARE
EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF DAKOTAS
AND WRN MN BY 00Z...WITH ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS NRN/WRN
NEB. BY END OF PERIOD...SFC LOW SHOULD REACH CENTRAL/NRN LS...WITH
COLD FRONT ARCHING SWD/SWWD OVER WI...NRN MO...NERN OK...NW TX...AND
SERN NM.
...UPPER MIDWEST...
WHILE ISOLATED LTG CANNOT BE DEFINITIVELY RULED OUT...RISK FOR TSTMS
APPEARS LESS CERTAIN OVERALL THAN IN PREVIOUS FCST. POCKETS OF MRGL
BUOYANCY -- ELEVATED MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB 150 J/KG AND ROOTED IN
650-700 MB LAYER -- MAY DEVELOP IN ZONE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
PRECEDING AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER NRN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WEAK THETAE...LACK OF MORE ROBUST
BUOYANCY...AND OVERALL COLDNESS OF ENTIRE COLUMN WITH TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING -- INDICATE POTENTIAL AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDER SHOULD
BE LESS THAN 10%.
...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES...
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AHEAD OF TROUGH NOW OVER GREAT BASIN...WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIP MAINLY OVER PARTS OF SRN CO THIS AFTN
AND EVENING...INTO NRN NM TONIGHT. SOME MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT 50-100
J/KG MLCAPE BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE FOR THAT
MUCH MOISTURE NEAR SFC IS LACKING ATTM...EITHER IN THAT AREA OR
UPSTREAM. ISOLATED LTG MAY OCCUR...HOWEVER POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
BRIEF AND UNFOCUSED FOR GEN-TSTM AREA ATTM.
..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 02/10/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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