Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 020530
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AS WELL AS THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS
ON MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
...CNTRL/SRN CA AND THE CO RIVER VALLEY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE PERSISTENCE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING TO PROMOTE WEAK BUOYANCY ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...THE COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE ALOFT MAY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CONVECTION.
...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
AS A VORTICITY MAX ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND TRANSLATES
EWD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS...AN ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
THAT THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACT UPON SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL AL...
AS A WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE PASSES THE REGION LATER IN THE
DAY...MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH WEAK
ELEVATED BUOYANCY TO PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
..PICCA.. 03/02/2015
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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